With market capitalization standing at $798 billion and a 24-hour trade volume of $16.58 billion, bitcoin’s current state remains consolidated just above the $41K zone. As bitcoin hovers around $41,088, a meticulous analysis of its 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily chart unveils a predominantly bearish trend.
Bitcoin
Oscillators, key indicators of bitcoin’s momentum, and potential trend reversals present a mixed signal. The relative strength index (RSI) at 40 suggests a neutral to bearish stance, while the Stochastic at 12 and commodity channel index (CCI) at -120 also show a balancing act. However, the momentum indicator points to positivity at -2054, contrasting with the moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) level at -484, which indicates a bearish outlook.
The moving averages (MAs) offer a more bearish outlook. Both exponential moving average (EMA) and simple moving average (SMA) across various timeframes, from 10 to 50 days, predominantly signal negative sentiment in the market, reflecting a downward trend. However, the longer-term EMAs and SMAs, specifically at 100 and 200 days, show bullish signals, suggesting potential long-term upside amidst short-term volatility.
The 4-hour chart reveals a recent bearish trend, highlighted by a significant drop and subsequent consolidation. This period of less volatility and consolidation could indicate market uncertainty. For traders, potential entry points might involve waiting for a bullish reversal or a breakout above resistance levels, while exit points could be geared towards protecting against further downside movement.
On the daily chart, bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a more extended bearish phase with consistent drops and increasing volume on these bearish signals, confirming the downtrend’s strength. Entry points for long positions could be identified through bullish patterns at key support levels or candle closures above previous highs, while exits might focus on minimizing losses if the price breaks below support levels.
The 1-hour chart offers a more granular view of bitcoin’s price movements, showing a clearer consolidation pattern post-downtrend. Entry points for long positions could be identified through breakouts or bullish patterns at support levels, while exit strategies should focus on minimizing losses if the price breaks below recent lows, especially with signs of significant volume.
Across all charts, the market exhibits a bearish phase, necessitating cautiousness in long positions and attentiveness to reversal signals. Volume remains a critical indicator; spikes in conjunction with price movements are essential to confirm trend strength. Investors should be wary of false breakouts or reversals and employ stop-losses strategically to manage risks.
Bull Verdict:
Despite the prevailing bearish signals across various technical indicators, bitcoin’s market presents underlying strengths that could fuel a bullish reversal. The long-term moving averages and the potential for reversal patterns on the daily chart suggest resilience. If the market responds positively to broader economic cues and investor sentiment shifts, there is a reasonable prospect for bitcoin to initiate a recovery phase, breaking through current resistance levels and signaling a bullish trend.
Bear Verdict:
The preponderance of bearish indicators across bitcoin’s technical analysis points to a continued downtrend in the near term. Oscillators and short-term moving averages, especially on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, indicate sustained selling pressure and a lack of strong buyer momentum. Unless there is a significant change in market dynamics or external factors, BTC is likely to face further downward pressure, making lower price levels a distinct possibility in the short to medium term.
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via Jamie Redman
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